Six Ways to Tell If Xi Wins or Loses at China’s Party Congress
It’s all but certain Chinese President Xi Jinping will secure a third term at the Communist Party’s congress this month. Yet a range of other decisions will reveal whether he won or lost along the way. To get more news about chinese party congress, you can visit shine news official website.
The twice-a-decade gathering will culminate in one moment: When the newly selected members of the Politburo’s supreme Standing Committee stride out on stage in order of rank. While Xi is expected to once again lead the procession, who follows him -- and in what order -- will be among the most telling signals about his grip over the ruling party. The Standing Committee reveal is just one of several milestones during the congress, which is scheduled to start Oct. 16 and last about a week. Each announcement, speech or decision may indicate whether the 69-year-old leader is secure or facing internal pushback that could prompt policy changes.
1. Standing Committee
There will be at least two vacancies on the seven-member Standing Committee if Xi enforces the traditional 68-year-old retirement age for officials other than himself. He needs at least three allies to secure a majority on the panel that manages the affairs of almost one-fifth of the world’s population.
Win: A Standing Committee including three or more close allies -- such as Xi chief of staff Ding Xuexiang, Beijing party chief Cai Qi, Chongqing party chief Chen Miner or Shanghai party chief Li Qiang -- would represent a win. “Xi’s likely to increase his factional majority on the Standing Committee from four members now to at least five,” Neil Thomas, China analyst with the Eurasia Group Ltd., adding that Ding could get the powerful role leading Xi’s anti-corruption campaign.
Loss: A lineup that includes Premier Li Keqiang, top political adviser Wang Yang and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua at the same time would be seen as a loss. All three have been associated with the Communist Youth League, a key power base of former President Hu Jintao. The 59-year-old Hu Chunhua -- sometimes called “Little Hu” -- is still young enough to be a viable successor to Xi.
While it’s unclear whether Li Keqiang, 67, will retire or stay as the Standing Committee’s No. 2, he’s already announced he’ll relinquish the role of premier. Whoever becomes premier, which officially oversees China’s government, could point to the party’s appetite for balancing Xi’s power. The job has traditionally gone to the party’s second- or third-ranked official.
Win: Promoting a former Xi aide like Shanghai party chief Li Qiang to the premier’s role would be a clear sign he faces little internal resistance. That’s even more true after Li’s association with the controversial two-month Covid lockdown in Shanghai, which led to rare outbreaks of social unrest.
Loss: The promotion of Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua -- neither of whom is seen as being close to Xi -- could indicate some support for a counterweight to his power.
3. Politburo Vacancies
Nine of the other 18 members of the Politburo are set to retire this year, giving Xi another chance to remake the body. An even higher turnover is possible thanks to new rules making it easier to demote cadres who waver on issues “involving the party’s leadership.”
Win: Xi could oversee a wave of early retirements and fill more vacancies with his allies. As many as two-thirds of the seats may see new faces, according to estimates from Chen Gang, assistant director and senior research fellow of National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute. Thomas, of the Eurasia Group, sees the possibility of 80% of the seats being held by Xi’s political allies.
Loss: Failing to reach a dominant majority, or the promotion of officials who lack obvious connections to Xi, could suggest some pressure to compromise.
Statements released during the congress may indicate whether Xi will keep his three official titles of party secretary, president and commander-in-chief of the military, surrender one or even get a new one. While few expect any such changes, the ramifications would be huge.
Win: Bestowing the now-defunct role of party chairman on Xi would affirm his supremacy. The last person to hold the title, Mao, wielded veto power over Standing Committee decisions.
Loss: Xi could relinquish one of his titles, a sign that he intends to share power with a possible successor.
6. Party Charter
Amendments to the party’s charter will reveal how much support Xi’s slogans and policies have received from the broader party. Five years ago, Xi got his “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” written into the document.
It’s all but certain Chinese President Xi Jinping will secure a third term at the Communist Party’s congress this month. Yet a range of other decisions will reveal whether he won or lost along the way. To get more news about chinese party congress, you can visit shine news official website.
The twice-a-decade gathering will culminate in one moment: When the newly selected members of the Politburo’s supreme Standing Committee stride out on stage in order of rank. While Xi is expected to once again lead the procession, who follows him -- and in what order -- will be among the most telling signals about his grip over the ruling party. The Standing Committee reveal is just one of several milestones during the congress, which is scheduled to start Oct. 16 and last about a week. Each announcement, speech or decision may indicate whether the 69-year-old leader is secure or facing internal pushback that could prompt policy changes.
1. Standing Committee
There will be at least two vacancies on the seven-member Standing Committee if Xi enforces the traditional 68-year-old retirement age for officials other than himself. He needs at least three allies to secure a majority on the panel that manages the affairs of almost one-fifth of the world’s population.
Win: A Standing Committee including three or more close allies -- such as Xi chief of staff Ding Xuexiang, Beijing party chief Cai Qi, Chongqing party chief Chen Miner or Shanghai party chief Li Qiang -- would represent a win. “Xi’s likely to increase his factional majority on the Standing Committee from four members now to at least five,” Neil Thomas, China analyst with the Eurasia Group Ltd., adding that Ding could get the powerful role leading Xi’s anti-corruption campaign.
Loss: A lineup that includes Premier Li Keqiang, top political adviser Wang Yang and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua at the same time would be seen as a loss. All three have been associated with the Communist Youth League, a key power base of former President Hu Jintao. The 59-year-old Hu Chunhua -- sometimes called “Little Hu” -- is still young enough to be a viable successor to Xi.
While it’s unclear whether Li Keqiang, 67, will retire or stay as the Standing Committee’s No. 2, he’s already announced he’ll relinquish the role of premier. Whoever becomes premier, which officially oversees China’s government, could point to the party’s appetite for balancing Xi’s power. The job has traditionally gone to the party’s second- or third-ranked official.
Win: Promoting a former Xi aide like Shanghai party chief Li Qiang to the premier’s role would be a clear sign he faces little internal resistance. That’s even more true after Li’s association with the controversial two-month Covid lockdown in Shanghai, which led to rare outbreaks of social unrest.
Loss: The promotion of Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua -- neither of whom is seen as being close to Xi -- could indicate some support for a counterweight to his power.
3. Politburo Vacancies
Nine of the other 18 members of the Politburo are set to retire this year, giving Xi another chance to remake the body. An even higher turnover is possible thanks to new rules making it easier to demote cadres who waver on issues “involving the party’s leadership.”
Win: Xi could oversee a wave of early retirements and fill more vacancies with his allies. As many as two-thirds of the seats may see new faces, according to estimates from Chen Gang, assistant director and senior research fellow of National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute. Thomas, of the Eurasia Group, sees the possibility of 80% of the seats being held by Xi’s political allies.
Loss: Failing to reach a dominant majority, or the promotion of officials who lack obvious connections to Xi, could suggest some pressure to compromise.
Statements released during the congress may indicate whether Xi will keep his three official titles of party secretary, president and commander-in-chief of the military, surrender one or even get a new one. While few expect any such changes, the ramifications would be huge.
Win: Bestowing the now-defunct role of party chairman on Xi would affirm his supremacy. The last person to hold the title, Mao, wielded veto power over Standing Committee decisions.
Loss: Xi could relinquish one of his titles, a sign that he intends to share power with a possible successor.
6. Party Charter
Amendments to the party’s charter will reveal how much support Xi’s slogans and policies have received from the broader party. Five years ago, Xi got his “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” written into the document.